Livermore Real Estate Market Update | September 2026

Market Update

Livermore Real Estate Market Update | September 2026

Single-Family Homes · Livermore, CA · September 2026

The Bottom Line

Inventory is pulling back. There are 97 homes on the market in Livermore, compared with 100, 104 and 105 in June, July and August. Pending sales eased again this month. Absorption has followed to 69.1% — most of what is standing still finds a buyer inside the month. That is a market that still favors a well-prepared seller. My experience certainly bears this out. It is a shallow market in terms of demand, so once the active buyers see the home, typically in the first couple of weeks, activity drops off fairly significantly. Speed of sale remains the single best predictor of outcome. Priced for maximum engagement and homes still move quickly and close at or near full ask. Priced to hope, they join the queue already cutting.

If you're selling

The market is still rewarding sellers who get it right. 30.9% of homes sold above original asking price — yours can be one of them. But that outcome requires pricing to current comps, not to hope. It requires presentation that earns attention and a marketing strategy that finds the right buyer before they find the next listing. Beautiful homes deserve beautiful marketing. In this market, that’s not a tagline — it’s the difference between the 30.9% that sold over ask and the 34% still cutting price to get noticed.

If you're buying

Active listings are sitting an average of 46 days before going under contract. Homes beyond 30 days on market — averaging 96% of original ask — are almost always negotiable. Get pre-approved, know your number, and move when you find the right home. The buyers winning right now are simply the most prepared.

A Deeper Dive into the Data.

ACTIVE LISTING ANALYSIS

Data for the month of September 2026

Inventory stands at 97 active listings, compared with 100, 104 and 105 in June, July and August and up from 96 a year ago. That’s below the three-month average of 103 — the shelf is thinning. What’s on the shelf has been there an average of 46 days. 34% have already taken a price reduction — nearly one in three sellers has adjusted expectations, and the ones who haven’t are usually next. Typically we see inventory thin as we enter the Fall, as discouraged sellers often take their homes off the market. My experience tells me we will see inventory shrink, which limits the choices for home buyers

PENDING LISTING ANALYSIS

Data for the month of September 2026

67 homes went under contract, up from 58 in Aug '26 and up from 51 a year ago. That puts absorption at 69.1%. Most of what is listed is finding a buyer inside the month. Sellers have the leverage here, and buyers who hesitate tend to pay for it. Pendings averaged 33 days on market before going under contract, and 27% cut their price before they found a buyer.

SOLD PROPERTY ANALYSIS

Data for the month of September 2026

67 homes closed, up from 57 in Aug '26 and down from 76 a year ago. The median landed at $1,200,000, or $681.00 per square foot. The average home sold for 99% of its original asking price, off the peak of 2.3% in Sep '26, and 30.9% closed above original list.

The speed-of-sale chart at the top of this report is the one to read twice. Homes that sold inside 15 days averaged 101% of original ask. Homes that sat past 30 days averaged 96% — and there were 33 of the former and 17 of the latter. 5 points of price separate them, and the only variable is time. Speed of sale isn’t a happy accident. It is what correct pricing looks like from the outside. 18% of these sellers cut their price before closing.

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

October 2024 – October 2026 · Freddie Mac PMMS

Currently 7.28%. Rates bottomed at 5.98% in February 2026 and have climbed every month since. That floor followed Federal Reserve cuts in late 2025, but bond yields have moved sharply the other way through the second half of 2026. At 7.28% (October 1, 2026) this is the highest reading on this chart — up 130 basis points from the February floor.

The 30-year fixed rate sits at 7.28%. A half-point move lower from here would meaningfully expand the buyer pool in the $1.5M–$2.5M range. Watch absorption through next month. If it holds above 55%, the fall will be tighter than most expect — unsold listings get withdrawn, inventory contracts, and demand doesn’t disappear. We know this market. We know your neighborhood. We know the pulse.