Livermore Real Estate Market Update | September 2026

Market Update

Livermore Real Estate Market Update | September 2026

Single-Family Homes · Livermore, CA · September 2026

The Bottom Line

Inventory has leveled off. There are 106 homes on the market in Livermore, compared with 104, 105 and 97 in June, July and August. Pending sales eased again this month and are running behind where they were a year ago. Absorption has followed to 43.4% — under half of what is standing finds a buyer in a given month.

I am seeing the pace of the market slow as we enter the Fall. The number worth sitting with is the gap between what is listed and what is selling. Active listings have been sitting an average of 47 days. The homes that actually closed took 21. The inventory on the shelf is 26 days older than the inventory moving off it. Nothing is wrong with this market. It has simply stopped rewarding wishful pricing. Right now, I am seeing homes priced for maximum engagement move quickly and close at or near full ask, and often over. Homes priced to hope, they join the queue already cutting.

If you're selling

The market is still rewarding sellers who get it right. 31% of homes sold above original asking price — yours can be one of them. But that outcome requires pricing for engagement, not hope. It requires presentation that earns attention and a marketing strategy that finds the right buyer before they find the next listing. My experience tells me that having the right strategy is key. In this market it’s the difference between the 31% that sold over ask and the 34% still cutting price to get noticed.

If you're buying

Active listings are sitting an average of 47 days before going under contract. Homes beyond 30 days on market — averaging 96% of original ask — are almost always negotiable. Get pre-approved, know your number, and move when you find the right home. The buyers winning right now are simply the most prepared.

A Deeper Dive into the Data.

ACTIVE LISTING ANALYSIS

Data for the month of September 2026

Inventory stands at 106 active listings, compared with 104, 105 and 97 in June, July and August and up from 80 a year ago. That’s right in line with the three-month average of 102. What’s on the shelf has been there an average of 47 days. 34% have already taken a price reduction — nearly one in three sellers has adjusted expectations, and the ones who haven’t are usually next.

PENDING LISTING ANALYSIS

Data for the month of September 2026

46 homes went under contract, down from 67 in Aug '26 and down from 57 a year ago. That puts absorption at 43.4%. Under half of standing inventory is finding a buyer in a given month. That is a cooling market, not a collapsing one — the distinction matters when you’re setting a price. Pendings averaged 30 days on market before going under contract, and 17% cut their price before they found a buyer.

SOLD PROPERTY ANALYSIS

Data for the month of September 2026

57 homes closed, down from 67 in Aug '26 and up from 49 a year ago. The median landed at $1,212,500, or $662.00 per square foot. The average home sold for 98.6% of its original asking price, off the peak of 102.0% in May '26, and 31% closed above original list.

The speed-of-sale chart at the top of this report is the one to read twice. Homes that sold inside 15 days averaged 101% of original ask. Homes that sat past 30 days averaged 96% — and there were 36 of the former and 17 of the latter. 5 points of price separate them, and the only variable is time. Speed of sale isn’t a happy accident. It is what correct pricing looks like from the outside. 17% of these sellers cut their price before closing.

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate

October 2024 – October 2026 · Freddie Mac PMMS

Currently 7.40%. Rates bottomed at 5.98% in February 2026 and have climbed every month since. That floor followed Federal Reserve cuts in late 2025, but bond yields have moved sharply the other way through the second half of 2026. At 7.40% (October 15, 2026) this is the highest reading on this chart — up 142 basis points from the February floor.

The 30-year fixed rate sits at 7.40%. A half-point move lower from here would meaningfully expand the buyer pool in the $1.5M–$2.5M range. Watch absorption through next month. If it holds above 50%, the fall will be tighter than most expect — unsold listings get withdrawn, inventory contracts, and demand doesn’t disappear. We know this market. We know your neighborhood. We know the pulse.