Dublin Real Estate Market Update | September 2026

Market Update

Dublin Real Estate Market Update September 2026

Single-Family Homes · Dublin, CA · September 2026

The Bottom Line

Inventory has leveled off. There are 74 homes on the market in Dublin, compared with 73, 69 and 70 in June, July and August. Pending sales have slipped 4 months in a row and are running behind where they were a year ago. Absorption has followed to 29.7% — under half of what is standing finds a buyer in a given month. That is a market tilting toward buyers, not one falling over.

The number worth sitting with is the gap between what is listed and what is selling. Active listings have been sitting an average of 60 days. The homes that actually closed took 31. The inventory on the shelf is 29 days older than the inventory moving off it. Nothing is wrong with this market. It has simply stopped rewarding wishful pricing. Priced to the comps, homes still move quickly and close at or near full ask. Priced to hope, they join the queue already cutting.

If you're selling

The market is still rewarding sellers who get it right. 36.7% of homes sold above original asking price — yours can be one of them. But that outcome requires pricing to current comps, not to hope. It requires presentation that earns attention and a marketing strategy that finds the right buyer before they find the next listing. Beautiful homes deserve beautiful marketing. In this market, that’s not a tagline — it’s the difference between the 36.7% that sold over ask and the 25% still cutting price to get noticed.

If you're buying

Active listings are sitting an average of 60 days before going under contract. Homes beyond 30 days on market — averaging 95% of original ask — are almost always negotiable. Get pre-approved, know your number, and move when you find the right home. The buyers winning right now are simply the most prepared.

A Deeper Dive into the Data

ACTIVE · PENDING · SOLD · RATES · 15-MONTH TRENDS · SEPTEMBER 2026

ACTIVE LISTING ANALYSIS

Data for the month of September 2026

Inventory stands at 74 active listings, compared with 73, 69 and 70 in June, July and August and up from 55 a year ago. That’s right in line with the three-month average of 71. What’s on the shelf has been there an average of 60 days. 25% have already taken a price reduction — a manageable share, but it climbs every week a listing goes unsold.

PENDING LISTING ANALYSIS

Data for the month of September 2026

22 homes went under contract, down from 29 in Aug ’26 and down from 28 a year ago. That puts absorption at 29.7%, down from 41.4% the prior month. Under half of standing inventory is finding a buyer in a given month. That is a cooling market, not a collapsing one — the distinction matters when you’re setting a price. Pendings averaged 65 days on market before going under contract, and 18% cut their price before they found a buyer.

SOLD PROPERTY ANALYSIS

Data for the month of September 2026

29 homes closed, down from 32 in Aug ’26 and down from 32 a year ago. The median landed at $1,517,500, or $708.00 per square foot. The average home sold for 97% of its original asking price, off the peak of 101.0% in Mar ’26, and 36.7% closed above original list.

The speed-of-sale chart at the top of this report is the one to read twice. Homes that sold inside 15 days averaged 100% of original ask. Homes that sat past 30 days averaged 95% — and there were 11 of the former and 15 of the latter. 5 points of price separate them, and the only variable is time. Speed of sale isn’t a happy accident. It is what correct pricing looks like from the outside. 13% of these sellers cut their price before closing.

30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE

October 2024 – October 2026 · Freddie Mac PMMS

Currently 7.40%. Rates bottomed at 5.98% in February 2026 and have climbed every month since. That floor followed Federal Reserve cuts in late 2025, but bond yields have moved sharply the other way through the second half of 2026. At 7.40% (October 15, 2026) this is the highest reading on this chart — up 142 basis points from the February floor.

The 30-year fixed is at 7.40%, holding at the highest reading on this chart after seven straight weekly rises. That hits Dublin harder than most, because the heart of this market sits between $1.0 and $2.0 million (nearly 8 in 10 homes for sale right now). That’s a buyer who finances, and every quarter point lands right on the monthly payment.

So watch absorption next month. At 29.7% it is the lowest reading in the 15 months on this report. If it climbs back toward 40%, September was a rate-shock pause. If it doesn’t, expect more price cuts before the holidays... and the sellers who price it right in October will be the ones who don’t have to. We know this market. We know your neighborhood. We know the pulse.