Is Now a Good Time to Buy Tri-Valley & Pleasanton Real Estate?

I am getting asked this question constantly from potential buyers right now… Is NOW a good time to buy?  Before I give you my thoughts, it is important to know that my crystal ball is in the shop for repairs since it has not been working the last couple years, so I can’t give you a definitive answer.  However, here are some things to consider in deciding if now is a good time to buy:

Marry the house, date the rate.  There is no doubt interest rates are high right now, especially when compared to the low interest environment (thanks to government intervention) since the mortgage melt down of 2008.  But you can always refi the loan if rates drop.  Interest rates tend are transitory, but the house is relatively permanent.  So buy now and refi later.

Timing the market is a myth.  I have been in the market for 30+ years, and still can’t tell you when we are at the “bottom” of the market.  In fact, the last home I bought was at the TOP of the market.  So what chance do you have timing the market perfectly?  And if you do know when in fact we are at the bottom, please tell me… I will keep it a secret.

Supply.  The simple fact is the Bay Area, and the State of California for that matter, have not built nearly enough homes to accommodate the demand.  So given this fact, it is not likely that we will see significant depreciation in the market going forward barring some unforeseen event. 

Value Shopping.  Some buyers are taking advantage of the lower prices and sluggish activity by shopping for value.  If they see a prime property that checks all their boxes, they know there is less competition and a better opportunity to negotiate in today’s market, versus competing against 10 other offers in the over-heated market we just experienced.

Inflation & the Economy.  Mortgage rates, and long-term rates in general, are a function of inflation.  IF the Fed can get inflation tamed, we should see long term and mortgage rates ease lower.  And if there is a recession (seems increasingly likely), the slowdown in economic activity should lead to lower rates and less inflationary pressure. 

How these factors interplay will largely determine the direction of the real estate market going forward.  Once I get my crystal ball back from the repair shop I will be able to give you a definitive answer.  Until then it is anyone’s guess.