The real estate market in Pleasanton CA in July looked a lot like the market in June. The activity level is remarkably steady, though not brisk. Inventory is up slightly, especially in the under $1 million price bracket. But for now the market seems to have settled into a slow but steady pattern. The good news is that there are sales occurring… 45 pending sales in July to be exact, down slightly from 49 pending sales in June. The bad news is that there are now 269 houses on the market, which is up from 243 houses available at the end of June.

For sellers this means you will have to be competitive with other homes on the market. You need to be one of the best values in your price range to attract the attention of buyers, which is no easy task. In fact, buyers today have an attention span seemingly measured in hours or even minutes. “Yes, I kind of like that house” in the morning turns into “It’s okay, but let’s see what else is out there” by mid-day, and by evening they have completely moved on. For buyers, this is a prime opportunity to get a great house in a prime neighborhood for prices well below the peak of 2005. So here is what the market looks like at the end of July (click on graph to enlarge)

In the under $1 million bracket, inventory increased to 146 homes for sale at the end of July, up from 120 at the end of June. There were 33 pending sales in July, which has remained fairly steady (30 in May, 32 in June). There is a 4.4 month supply of homes on the market now at the July sales rate (click on graph to enlarge)

In the $1 million to $2 million bracket, inventory has crept up slightly, with 33 homes on the market at the end of July, up from 32 at the end of June, and 30 at the end of May. However, sales have declined, with 9 pending sales in July, down from 14 in June and 20 in May. (Click on graph to enlarge)

In the luxury home bracket over $2 million, there were 36 homes on the market at the end of July, down from 42 at the end of June. Some of these were the result of price reductions, and some sellers simply decided they no longer wanted to play in this market. There were 3 pending sales in July, which is the same level as May and June. Overall, conditions in this price bracket remain sluggish, and there is currently a 12 month supply of homes at the current level of inventory and sales. (Click on graph to enlarge)

I expect inventory to edge up slightly as we get towards the end of Summer, and sales to remain fairly stable at current levels. Still a great time to buy. And if you are going to sell, you had best price your home to reflect the current market, or be very, very, very, very patient.

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I love this sign, courtesy of the Knoxville News Blog. With so many “bottom feeders” out there posing as buyers, it is refreshing to see someone tell it like it is. I know everyone wants a deal, and I am generally good with that. But it gets annoying getting calls from people asking if the sellers on your home that is listed (correctly, by the way) at $899,000 will take $650,000. Sure, as soon as John Lennon plays his next live tour (Click on image to enlarge)

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So now that everyone has spent the last decade in a frenzy to put in granite counter tops, the New York Times is reporting that there is apparently an elevated risk of radon contamination from some of the granite being used in homes. Great. So my half dozen trips to the granite dealer to pick out the “perfect” slab, the endless discussions about which bull nose edge to use, and the decisions about where to put the seams and whether to do an over-mount or under-mount sink have potentially added to my long (and growing) list of threats to my health?

Somehow, this takes all the joy out of it. For one thing, I think it would be awkward at Thanksgiving trying to carve the Turkey in one of those Haz-Mat suits with the oxygen tanks, and screaming at the top of your lungs “Aunt Phyllis, do you like dark meat or light?”. Or having friends over for a wine and cheese party in your new kitchen, and then promptly treating your departing guests to a Karen Silkwood shower in the foyer before they leave, complete with flashing red lights and sirens. It seems like a lot of work. Maybe I should have just put in tile after all.

Now before you go out and rip out all of your granite, it looks like the risk is relatively low in most cases:

Allegations that granite counter tops may emit dangerous levels of radon and radiation have been raised periodically over the past decade, mostly by makers and distributors of competing counter top materials. The Marble Institute of America has said such claims are ?ludicrous? because although granite is known to contain uranium and other radioactive materials like thorium and potassium, the amounts in counter tops are not enough to pose a health threat.

Indeed, health physicists and radiation experts agree that most granite counter tops emit radiation and radon at extremely low levels. They say these emissions are insignificant compared with so-called background radiation that is constantly raining down from outer space or seeping up from the earth?s crust, not to mention emanating from manmade sources like X-rays, luminous watches and smoke detectors.

Still, if you are unsure, it might be smart to get a radon test if it will help you sleep better. Or line your kitchen walls in lead. But one thing is for sure… granite counters still look the best!

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The big news this week has been the announcement the the Federal government will stand behind Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and essentially step in to bail them out if necessary. This is good news for the jittery housing market and certainly the battered mortgage industry. But coming after the Fed-brokered sale (don’t call it a bail out!) of Bear Stearns, it occurred to me that I am starting to get this capitalism thing. It seems now that capitalism can be boiled down to one simple thought… take risk, and make great money when you succeed, and when you fail, the government bails you out.

I want to be the first to go on record as saying we need a federal Realtor bail out plan. Oh sure, you laugh at first, but Realtors do so much more than sell houses. And with all the trouble in the housing market, Realtors are getting out of the business in record numbers, which is having a huge impact on both our economy and our society. Think of all of the things Realtors contribute:

* We send you all kinds of neat recipes in the mail. Who hasn’t been frantically searching for a desert recipe for a party, when suddenly a card arrives in the mail from a Realtor with recipes like “Peggy’s Apple Pie” or “My Favorite Mint Chip Brownies”.

* We drop off pumpkins at Halloween. Talk about a service to society. Nothing says inadequate parenting like failing to buy pumpkins at Halloween. And with gas at $5 per gallon, it seems silly to waste all that gas with a trip to the store. Problem solved, thanks to us Realtors.

* We put flags out for you on 4th of July. Thanks to us, you don’t have to hassle with putting up a flag. We put thousands of them up for you, and every house in the neighborhood gets a cool mini flag in the front yard.

* We purchase ads on those stupid little dividers at the supermarket check out line. Who else is going to do it? I doubt I’ll see a Bear Stearns ad on one anytime soon.

* We keep you in shape. Sure, you could go for a nice relaxing stroll on a Sunday afternoon, but it is far better for your agility and flexibility to have to dodge open house signs on the sidewalk. And since they are about the right size, you might even consider doing some hurdles while you are at it. It seems annoying now, but you will thank us later. Trust me.

* We keep newspapers in business. If it weren’t for real estate advertising, newspapers would be out of business. Who doesn?t appreciate that cute little ad with the overpriced house, the picture of the Realtor with their dog, and that catchy call to action “This One Won’t Last!” (of course it’s been on the market for 7 months) costs an arm and a leg. Sure, I know the public does not look for homes in the newspaper, but we are team players. 40% of a real estate company’s revenue is a small price to pay to keep these papers alive for the greater good of all.

* We provide free education about real estate to the public. How many times have you been treated to an obnoxious, in-depth conversation about real estate by some Realtor in line at Starbucks or the grocery store. At first you think they are talking to you, but then you see that earpiece with the blue light on it, and you realize they are talking on their cell phone. “Yes, I think house prices are going up. Look at the house on Maple Street. It sold in like 4 months!” or “let’s talk about how we can make this deal for you”. The public would have to pay top dollar for this kind of inside information.

* We fund a large portion of the revenue from traffic tickets. Driving while reading MLS printouts, parking on the wrong side of the street, rolling through stop signs because we are late for our open house… the list goes on. Simply put, without Realtors, your taxes would be higher.

* We give you access to your neighbor’s houses. Be honest here, how many times have you gone to an open house in your neighborhood just out of curiosity? How else are you going to snoop around your neighbor?s home without feeling like a voyeur? We provide you with the perfect excuse to be nosy… almost like a Desperate Housewives home tour service.

* We single handedly keep the Success and Coaching industries in business. I get probably 147 invitations to free seminars each week. Without Realtors, these people would starve, causing a massive ripple effect economically, and more importantly to the nations psyche since lately the only positive news is coming from gurus like Tony Robbins, the guy with the big teeth.

These are just a few of the many benefits that Realtors provide to society, and I for one think the Federal Government should immediately implement a program to prop up the Real estate brokerage industry. Since they like acronyms, we could call it the RAP, or Realtor Assistance Program. As a side benefit, I could finally tell my teenage daughter how much I love RAP.

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Let’s see. I am beginning to feel like Bill Murray in the movie “Groundhog Day”. Alarm goes off, I get out of bed, and the everything looks eerily similar. For the Pleasanton CA real estate market, the month of June looked a lot like the month of May. Sales were steady but not spectacular, the economic and national real estate news was troubling, and an air of uncertainty hung over the real estate market like…. well like smoke from dozens of wild fires. Wait, that was smoke from dozens of wild fires.

It’s not that all of the news is bad. There are some mixed signals in the market, or at least the real estate market. As long as you don’t have your life savings invested in GM stock, things are doing pretty well, all things considered. We continue to see signs that some of the depressed markets in outlying areas are turning the corner, with sales activity up substantially in the previously decimated markets of Brentwood, Tracy, Antioch, and Stockton for example. And the continued sluggish market is creating some excellent deals on homes that would have had multiple offers back when Howie Mandell actually had hair.

For all of Pleasanton in June, the inventory of available single family homes ended the month at 243, which is actually down slightly from 245 at the end of May. Pending sales for the month of June were 49, down slightly from 53 pending sales in May. Basically a 5 month supply of homes on the market given the sales rate in June, which is not great, but not bad. (click on graph to enlarge).

For the under $1 million price range in Pleasanton, inventory was down from May, with 120 available single family homes at the end of June (as compared with 132 at the end of May). Pending sales were up, with 32 sales in the month of June as compared with 30 in May. Some neighborhoods are moving more than others, and there is still an emphasis on value in the market, but if priced right, you can still sell your home quickly in this price range. (Click on graph to enlarge).

For the $1 million to $2 million market, inventory was up slightly, with 81 available homes at the end of June, compared with 71 at the end of May. Pending sales were down some in this bracket, with 14 sales in June as opposed to 20 in April and May. Financing has remained problematic in this price bracket, with delays and hyper-stringent underwriting making transactions difficult and fraying the nerves of all parties to the transaction. (Click on graph to enlarge).

In the luxury home segment over $2 million, things remained unchanged in June. There were 42 available homes on the market at the end of both May and June, and 3 pending sales in both months. Activity in this price segment remains sluggish, and there continues to be downward pressure on prices here. (Click on graph to enlarge)

As we enter the prime summer months, all eyes remain on the Fed, who is walking the tight rope between lowering rates and increasing liquidity to shore up the battered banking system on the one hand, and taking steps to shore up the dollar to fight runaway oil prices and inflation on the other hand. How this battle takes shape in the coming months will go a long way in determining the state of the real estate market towards year end. And just to further confuse the waters, it is an election year, so anything goes. One thing is for sure… we live in interesting times.

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