Let’s see. I am beginning to feel like Bill Murray in the movie “Groundhog Day”. Alarm goes off, I get out of bed, and the everything looks eerily similar. For the Pleasanton CA real estate market, the month of June looked a lot like the month of May. Sales were steady but not spectacular, the economic and national real estate news was troubling, and an air of uncertainty hung over the real estate market like…. well like smoke from dozens of wild fires. Wait, that was smoke from dozens of wild fires.

It’s not that all of the news is bad. There are some mixed signals in the market, or at least the real estate market. As long as you don’t have your life savings invested in GM stock, things are doing pretty well, all things considered. We continue to see signs that some of the depressed markets in outlying areas are turning the corner, with sales activity up substantially in the previously decimated markets of Brentwood, Tracy, Antioch, and Stockton for example. And the continued sluggish market is creating some excellent deals on homes that would have had multiple offers back when Howie Mandell actually had hair.

For all of Pleasanton in June, the inventory of available single family homes ended the month at 243, which is actually down slightly from 245 at the end of May. Pending sales for the month of June were 49, down slightly from 53 pending sales in May. Basically a 5 month supply of homes on the market given the sales rate in June, which is not great, but not bad. (click on graph to enlarge).

For the under $1 million price range in Pleasanton, inventory was down from May, with 120 available single family homes at the end of June (as compared with 132 at the end of May). Pending sales were up, with 32 sales in the month of June as compared with 30 in May. Some neighborhoods are moving more than others, and there is still an emphasis on value in the market, but if priced right, you can still sell your home quickly in this price range. (Click on graph to enlarge).

For the $1 million to $2 million market, inventory was up slightly, with 81 available homes at the end of June, compared with 71 at the end of May. Pending sales were down some in this bracket, with 14 sales in June as opposed to 20 in April and May. Financing has remained problematic in this price bracket, with delays and hyper-stringent underwriting making transactions difficult and fraying the nerves of all parties to the transaction. (Click on graph to enlarge).

In the luxury home segment over $2 million, things remained unchanged in June. There were 42 available homes on the market at the end of both May and June, and 3 pending sales in both months. Activity in this price segment remains sluggish, and there continues to be downward pressure on prices here. (Click on graph to enlarge)

As we enter the prime summer months, all eyes remain on the Fed, who is walking the tight rope between lowering rates and increasing liquidity to shore up the battered banking system on the one hand, and taking steps to shore up the dollar to fight runaway oil prices and inflation on the other hand. How this battle takes shape in the coming months will go a long way in determining the state of the real estate market towards year end. And just to further confuse the waters, it is an election year, so anything goes. One thing is for sure… we live in interesting times.

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There has been tremendous fallout from the sub prime & mortgage market meltdown. Lenders have tightened up underwriting criteria, and are demanding higher credit scores. Downpayment requirements have increased, and most of the high risk “stated income” loans have gone by the wayside. There is, however, no truth to the rumor that the major lenders now demand your first born child as collateral as well. Needless to say, the stricter lending environment has had a direct impact on the local real estate market. And once a buyer and a seller agree on price and enter into a contract, the challenges are not over.

Appraisals have become an issue for many transactions now as well. Lenders have been stung by overly optimistic appraisals, and even out right appraisal fraud. During the wild and frenzied market of the early 2000’s, when money was cheap and plentiful, appraisals struggled to keep up with the surging prices. Appraisers have to use data on closed sales, which means in a rapidly increasing market, by the time the comparable sales close escrow and become viable for an appraiser, often they were behind the market. Appraisers were forced to compensate for the rapid price moves by using adjustments for market conditions. They were forced to use adjustments to compensate for differences between the subject property and the comparable sales, and many times these adjustments added 10% or more to the property value in order to bring the appraisal in at the sales price, which was often bid up over asking price. And in cases where there was outright loan fraud on the part of the borrower, the appraisal had to be inflated well above market value (again using shaky comparable sales and excessive adjustments) in order to give the fraudulent buyer money back at the close of escrow. While it certainly was not always the case, many times lenders on non-performing loans or loans in default found that the appraisals contained excessive adjustments and inaccurate data.

As is often the case, the pendulum has now swung back the other way. Lenders are very diligent in analyzing appraisals, and now have tightened up the requirements for appraisals to be valid. They are requiring that the appraisals have comparable sales within the last 90 days that are within the immediate neighborhood of the subject property. And in cases where the appraiser is using excessive adjustments to the subject property because of poor comparable sales, the lender is often adjusting the appraised value downward during the review and underwriting process. This is causing some deals to fall apart during escrow, or forcing sellers to renegotiate the price to reflect the lower appraisal. Most troubling is that the appraisal review process can often occur at the 11th hour, catching both the buyer and seller by surprise.

So how do you protect yourself? As a seller, it is imperative that your agent inquire with the lender about the status of the appraisal, and whether there is an appraisal review that is part of the underwriting. On all loans appraisal reviews are commonplace, and sometimes lenders even require two separate appraisals on large loan amounts. Until the loan has made it through the lenders underwriting and appraisal review process you might not have an escrow that will close.

As a buyer, your agent needs to be extra diligent in how and when they remove the appraisal and loan contingency. You might get a loan approval from the lender, but again you need to make sure that it is not subject to an appraisal review. You should not remove the loan and/or appraisal contingency until you know that the appraised value is approved by the lender. Otherwise, you might find yourself in the position of removing your loan and appraisal contingency, and then finding out that the appraised value has been reduced by the lender.

The properties that have the most difficulty are homes that sell above recent sales in a neighborhood. Homes that are larger, or more upgraded, or have spectacular views and amenities should be expected to sell for more than other homes in the same neighborhood. But when it comes time to have the lender approve the appraisal you might have issues, since the appraiser will have to use large adjustments in the value to justify the higher sales price. And the lender very well may knock down the appraised value of the home during the review process, even though the home is clearly worth more in the “real world”. As a rule, you should have your home “bracketed”… in other words, there should be some homes in the immediate neighborhood that have sold for more than your home, and other similar sales of homes at the same price or less so that the lender has a good range of value behind the appraisal.

So if you have an over-improved home, or a home that was added on to that is now larger than the other homes in the neighborhood, you might have some problems with the appraisal when it comes time to sell, since it will be difficult to find comparable sales in the immediate neighborhood. So you might want to think twice before you put in that Resort sized pool with a water slide and swim up bar, or that $60,000 outdoor kitchen, or the tennis court, etc. While it is always cool to own the nicest home in the neighborhood, you might not be smiling when it comes time to sell, and you have to justify the appraised value to the lender.

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The Pleasanton CA real estate market remained steady in May, with activity down slightly from the banner month of April, and inventory climbing slightly. Of course, with the Memorial Day holiday, many people were no doubt exhausted from spending hours trying to find gasoline for under $5 per gallon for their 3 day weekend, so I’m sure that few had the time or energy to look for homes. That being said, the market activity seems to be decent, although there is still downward pressure in most price categories and neighborhoods.

For the month, we had 53 pending single family homes, which is down slightly from the 67 we had in April, but still respectable. Inventory is up some, which is normal from a seasonal standpoint. We ended the month of May with 245 single family homes on the market, as compared with 221 at the end of April. For the market overall, we currently have a 4.6 month supply of homes. Or put another way, if no new homes come on the market, at the current sales rate, it would take 4.6 months for all the current listings to sell. (click on graph to enlarge)

In the under $1 million segment, pending sales were down for May, with 30 pending sales for the month, as compared to 42 in April. Inventory at the end of May was 132, up from 118 at the end of April. (click on graph to enlarge)

In the $1 million to $2 million bracket, the market was stable. Pending sales were 20 for the month of May, which is the same as April. Inventory rose slightly at the end of May, with 71 homes on the market, as compared to 70 at the end of April. This is arguably the strongest market segment right now, with a 3.5 month supply of homes. (click on graph to enlarge)

In the luxury home segment over $2 million, sales were down slightly, with 3 pending sales for the month, as compared to 5 for the month of May. Inventory jumped from 33 available homes at the end of April, to 42 homes at the end of May. Overall in this price segment, it is still sluggish, with a 14 month supply of listings. (click on graph to enlarge)

At the end of the day, it is still a value market. Homes that are priced well and in pristine condition will continue to attract a lot of interest from buyers (even multiple offers on occasion). Other homes that have unrealistic prices or major flaws in condition or location will continue to struggle. There continues to be positive signs from the weak secondary markets like Stocton, Tracy, Antioch, etc. We are seeing much stronger activity in these markets, which might be an indication that these markets are starting to stabilize, which is good news. Is the bottom of the market closer than we think? Stay tuned…

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There is a silver lining to the slumping real estate market after all. If you purchased your home in the last 3 years or so, it is likely that your home has probably decreased in value. While that is certainly not welcome news, there is a small benefit. You are allowed by law to request a reassessment of your current assessed property value, thereby potentially lowering your property taxes temporarily.

The assessed value can be found in two ways. First of all, the county tax assessor (they are so nice to do this) send you out a NOTICE OF ASSESSED VALUE for the coming property tax year. Remember, the property tax year runs July 1st through June 30th. In the NOTICE OF ASSESSED VALUE, the assessor indicates the new assessed value of your property for the next tax year based on the property value as of January 1st.

If you have not saved this notice, you can also refer to the actual property tax bill when you receive it. Both documents will indicated your assessed value. You can also contact the county assessor’s office and get the information that way.

If you feel the market value of your home is less than the assessed value as of January 1st, then you have the right under proposition 8 to file a Decline in Value Reassessment Application. You can obtain the form from the county assessors office, or by using the link below.

On the claim form, you must provide the Assessor with any information that supports your opinion of the market value. The best information, of course, would be sales comparables. You should provide two comparable closed sales that sold as close to January 1st as possible, but no later than March 31st. Remember, the assessed value of your property is based on it’s value on January 1st of that year. Of course, the assessor is free to consider other sales information at their disposal to arrive at a decision, so it is not an automatic approval. This form should be submitted to the Assessors office before June 2nd.

If the assessor does not agree to your value, you do have the right to appeal the decision. If you decide to appeal the assessed value, you must do so between July 1st and September 15th. The appeal forms can be obtained by contacting the assessor’s office.

Once the assessor agrees to a temporary reduction of assessed value under Proposition 8, the assessors office automatically review the subsequent years assessed value. Again, if you do not agree, you can file another appeal in that tax year. If the property appreciates, the assessed value can never increase above the Prop 13 baseline assessed value (your annual assessed value based on your original market value or purchase price, plus increases). So you will never be worse off for filing an appeal. It is a temporary reduction in assessed value.

Here are links to information and the Decline in Assessed value forms:

Alameda County:

Reassessment Information (PDF)
Decline In Assessed Value Claim Form (PDF)

Contra Costa County:

Reassessment Information
Decline In Assessed Value Claim Form (PDF)

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The Pleasanton CA real estate market saw a spike in activity in April, as pending sales for the month rose to their highest level since June 2007. Despite continuing dismal news on the national and regional real estate markets, and shaky economic indicators, many buyers in Pleasanton are deciding that values have reached a point where they are very attractive, and are deciding to act. This is yet another example of why there is no “real estate market”, but rather a series of micro markets that vary in terms of activity, outlook, and strength. Even within the city of Pleasanton there are neighborhoods and areas that are fairing much better than others. But as a whole, Pleasanton saw a strong month of activity in April. There were 67 pending sales for detached homes in April, up from 35 in March, and 43 in February. Inventory rose to 221 homes on the market at the end of April, up from 206 in March. This is perhaps a sign that this summer could see strong activity, certainly welcome news (click on graph to enlarge).

In the under $1 million price range, there were 42 pending sales in April, up significantly from 26 in March and 30 in February. Overall, 2/3 of the sales were in the under $1 million price range. Inventory rose to 118 available single family homes at the end of April, up from 106 at the end of March (click on graph to enlarge).

In the $1 million to $2 million price segment, activity was up significantly. There were 20 pending sales in April, making it the most active month in this price segment since May of 2006. March saw 8 pending sales in this price segment, so it was certainly a good month. Inventory rose slightly, with 70 homes on the market at the end of April as compared to 67 at the end of March (click on graph to enlarge).

In the over $2 million price range, activity was up as well with 5 pending sales in April as compared with 1 in March and 3 in February. Inventory remained unchanged, with 33 homes on the market at the end of April (click on graph to enlarge).

Overall, the spike of activity is certainly welcome news. With many sellers getting more aggressive on pricing, many buyers are getting off the fence and taking advantage of the values available in the marketplace. With interest rates remaining low for the foreseeable future, there is hope that this will be an active summer for the Pleasanton housing market. Only time will tell….

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